If you also thought the Rams would easily cover the +2.5 spread at home Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills, welcome to the club. While football season is beginning, baseball season is nearing it’s riveting stretch run.
Let’s get back on track with a Sunday night game between two NL Central teams. All bets are tracked in the action app (rdc2697).
MLB Best Bet Today: Cincinnati Reds First Five Innings +.5 (-130)
This isn’t exactly the most entertaining game on Friday’s slate. It is one, though, that offers some value on the first five innings run-line. Let’s break down my MLB Best Bet below.
Nick Lodolo takes the mound for the Reds, and he’s been great this season. In 73 Innings, Lodolo has pitched to a 3.95 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.81 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP. That’s a lot of consistency across projection systems, something that’s hard to come by.
It also helps that the Brewers are dreadful versus lefties, slashing .215/.304/.353 with a .658 OPS on the season.
On the mound for the Brewers is left hander Jason Alexander, who sports a 5.03 ERA, 5.11 xERA, 4.98 FIP and a 4.66 xFIP. Alexander ranks in the 1st percentile in whiff%, 2nd percentile in K%, 13th percentile in HardHit% and 11th percentile in xERA/xwOBA. While he does draw a lot of ground balls, he’s prone to running into trouble.
The Reds have a huge advantage on the mound tonight, but I am going to avoid the bullpen game. Lodolo has been impressive in his rookie season. Couple that with a bad pitcher on the mound for the Brewers alongside the fact that they struggle against lefties and I’ll take the Reds getting .5 runs through the first five with a smile on my face.
The Pick: Reds First Five Innings +.5 (-130)